Earl

Appalling misinformation about the effectiveness of the sand bags. Mr Baker should know better. We have been through this ad nauseum about the detriments to abutters' land on the ends of hard armoring. That picture demonstrates my point better than any words could. My understanding is that he(Mr Ratner)was in violation of multiple codes as well. Not to mention, as Mr Ratner admits in the article, those bags fail. When they fail, they end up in the ocean fouling everything from beaches to propellers. I have been on the wrong end of those bags several times and have had to go over-board to cut them free.

Blair Perkins

There is now an excellent Earl "aftermath upate" on the Inky's homepage, and a nice piece on Ratner's place in Madaket, too, by Inky writer Eliot Baker.  Here's the link:

  http://www.ack.net/

I have an idea....instead of throwing it out, save it until the end of hurricane season in case you need to board up again.....store it and re-use perhaps so you don't have to buy it again.

Almost exactly 3 inches of rain here at the homestead up by the Old Mill.  The worst hour of wind and rain was 2AM.  The trees were dancing like crazy, bending and bowing. 

All the plywood except The Lion's Paw was off by 10A or so in town (the Paw's was all marked and numbered, and being taken down in an orderly fashion, so they're saving it for the next storm).  A crew was un-taping the windows inside Murray's.  Around 11A it was really busy up and down Main and through Straight Wharf, so it may turn out to be a good Labor Day weekend for island businesses after all. 

I saw a lot of plywood coming into the dump this morning, so that may be the place to go for your fort, Grant.  Sounds like fun.  Loved your "Waiting For Earl" video, by the way.  Great.

Anywho, we're really lucky that Earl skirted us 80+ miles to the east.  Very lucky indeed.  I'm glad I did everything I did around the place here (even filling the tub, Georgen) to be prepared.  And I'll do it again, if another storm heads this way. 

At least we had a lot of yard art and general household stuff clean-up done this week ... 19 years worth since Bob ... that even the Clean Team couldn't work on.    

Anyone else surprised that the Inky didn't post any updates as the storm actually moved in and passed by?  Curious.

'Peep

The big question is, what can we build with all of this slightly used plywood??? A cool fort maybe?

out in our meadow, 2.25 inches of rain in the brand new rain gauge..

Ratner's has survived another one.....just got back from my morning walk on the beach and it's still there.

Last nite at dusk, the waves where breaking on/over the sandbags....water had to be going into the house.

I didn't go down towards Smith's to see if there was a breech....after my monrning coffee I'll go back and head west.

just saw Ratners house on channel 5, still hanging in there

54mph was highest gust. 29.00" was lowest pressure at about 0100.

24 feet at 44008

40N 69.7W  Just missed the Benchmark.

Someone mentioned on Facebook that Ratner's is gone. No confirmation until tomorrow when we see the house all over the beachs I suppose.

Definitely seen worse. Earl was just downgraded to tropical storm

Fishspinner.  Boatpuller.  We have seen a lot worse.

I'll predict 52 mph top gust, based on nuttin' but a guess.

Storm center has jogged due east and most likely will pass well south of the benchmark, which puts it wayyyy south of ACK. My top gust speed guess is 45kts. Anyone else? ( random home stations, town pier etc. don't count. Only certified stations such as KACK ASOS at the airport. I'm sure we'll have home stations gusting to "90 mph" , but they are unreliable because most are not installed properly).

Earl wil be at its closest to Nantucket between midnight and 2 AM.

They are delicious. 

Love those cute pups in your pic, Grant. 

Thanks, Greg.  I'm sure you're right.  Hope all of you out there have your hatches all battened down, and that you'll be safe and sound through the night tonight.  Also hope we keep our power on on-island, so we can all stay in touch here on YACK.  Stay strong.

'Peep

One of my neighbors:

Until last night we were on track for quite a hit, perhaps on the order of at least Bob or one of the big storms of the early '50's. Had the storm stayed strong and on track, we might have received a damaging blow, so, prudence wasn't a bad thing and since this was, really, our first storm since Katrina, people acted with an abundance of caution. The obvious problem is the next time we get a dire warning. At some point, we'll get the storm of the century, it's just the odds.

By the way, what's the deal with all the plywood and tape on store windows on Main and Centre and all around town downtown?

In all my years here, I can't recall seeing that precaution taken, no matter the storm threat.  Nor'easters, hurricanes, and more - never saw it.  Maybe something in the Karp renters'  agreements?  Special insurance reasons, perhaps?  State pool?  When I saw the plywood going up last night in town, it really gave me pause.  Made me worry more than I needed to, I think. 

(I broke out a roll of blue painter's tape and put a little bit on my front door window here at the homestead, just to make feel a bit better.)

'Peep

Just got back from the beach...big surf and a few guys surfing BIG WAVES...its almost a beach day!

The Weather Channel is now saying we'll have winds from 35 to 50 mph, gusts to 70 mph, and a couple of inches of rain late today.

Looks like we'll be OK, huh?    Crossing my fingers and toes. 

At least I got to clean up my yard and deck, and the neighbors' places all look nice and neat, too.  I saw a lot of ol' yard stuff going into TIOLI and the bulky bin at the landfill yesterday and today.  What a reason for a clean-up.

'Peep

it probably will be no worse than the nor'easter a week ago monday......although just walked the beach and there was some pretty powerful stuff out there.

(G)earl underwent a sex change operation last night and will give us a few hurricane force gusts, 5" of rain and some huge surf. That's about it.

Passing by the fire station, going to the S&S, saw what can only be described as ominous forewarning.  Firemen prepping chain saws.

Looking less like a big deal. Similar to Eduoard in '96. Probably less. High end tropical storm force/low end cat 1. Models are favoring a slighly east of guidance track. SE winds 50mph to 80mph maintaining that velocity as it backs to the E and NE and N. Gusts could reach 90mph. The storm appears to be weakening from a state that it will not recover from.

thanks Greg.  that's what i'm trying to figure out.  i'm definitely considering running TO the island.

Peep:  no offense intended.  i didn't mean for that to sound flip, but rereading it, i can see how it could be considered so.

i'm looking at riding it out to protect teh house from a tree branch through the window or other significant property damage...

Watching from afar and wishing y'all a safe next few days.  Hunker down Safely, friends. 

From what I hear, out at the airport, as many people are coming to the island as are leaving. From what I've read, Nantucket Air will fly till noon on Friday. The Hy-Line will run on a trip-by-trip basis until, I guess, it can't. The Authority? Who knows - they haven't posted any info on their website that I could tell.

Earl will be a fast hit: the storm is predicted to be just west of Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, which is what, 250 miles from here, by 8 am Saturday, putting the peak, perhaps even the eye passing over the island, in the 9-11 pm time frame, with the action starting most likely to start cracking mid-afternoon.

I don't think Blair has time to sit by the computer right now what with a couple of very big boats to secure. 

A "nifty dead center hit" of a Cat 2 is not funny - or fun - for us peeps out here at our homesteads, beav.

I'm hoping for the best, but feel we're in for some major damage.  Dang.  The Weather Channel just said it will be "very dangerous" for us on Nantucket.

Anything new, Blair?  What's your gut on this?

'Peep

when would you estimate the last boat into Nantucket will run?

the talking weather heads in Boston are saying that we'd be seeing rough weather after 6PM.

is that still accurate?

i'd love to come and experience nature's fury, especially for a nifty dead center hit of a Cat 2.

Sorry. I meant WARNING!!!

As of 11 AM, Thursday, we now have a hurricane warning for our area from the National weather service. 

At 7 AM, the Local Weather Station in Taunton issued this statement:

HURRICANE EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AND IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH
LATE TODAY THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST TRACK PROJECTION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND
EARL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN 30 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET
FRIDAY NIGHT.

EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS BUT MAY STILL BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST EXTENSIVE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

No time to post pics but it could well go overhead. We are now in a hurricane watch.

No time to post pics but it could well go overhead. We are now in a hurricane watch.

At 5 AM, the track was even closer to Nantucket. I'm taking the day off to do everything on Georgen's list. 

If you have a laptop, make sure it's charged. You can use it to charge your cell phone.

from the NWS watch report:

SITUATION OVERVIEW... HURRICANE EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH LATE TODAY THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST TRACK PROJECTION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND EARL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN 50 MILES OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT.

EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS BUT MAY STILL BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

hmmm...could be an interesting night tomorrow

This could become quite the storm for us. I'm preparing for at least cat 2 conditions. Forecasting this storm will come down to "nowcasting" as far as actual conditions. Could be sustained 60 kts or it could be sustained 100 kts depending on exact track. The latest satellite pic suggests a cat 5 headed toward Hatteras.

NWS reports: There's a hurricane watch in effect for Nantucket, the Vineyard and the Cape. (see the pink area on the map below. As of 5 PM, watches and warnings have been extended up the east coast.

The Weather Channel peeps are now reporting from Chatham on the Cape, saying that the Cape & Islands will be "ground zero" for Earl late Friday and early Saturday, with an impact not seen in almost 20 years, adding there has been no threat like what's coming this weekend since Bob and the Perfect Storm (ol' No-Name) in 1991.

Whaddya think, Blair? 

Should I get another loaf of bread and a bundle of roof shingles?  Will 'Sconset take a hit at Codfish Park?  Will we have to move Sankaty Light again?  Will AB actually have to fire up the generator?  Not much new info here at all, when we need it most.

Anything you can add will help.

'Peep

From 5am this morning (Kinda sounds like the forecaster is rooting for the hurricane):

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE

WEST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK DOES LIKEWISE TO BE IN THE CENTER
OF THE ENVELOPE.  THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM.  ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE...THE
HURRICANE IS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAS GOOD
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND HAS A
GOOD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...EARL IS
EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR
WRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CYCLONE.  SOME SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON
THIS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS EARL ENCOUNTERS
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR.  EARL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. 

Update from Wed Morning. If I'm doing my math correctly, it looks like Earl may pass within 100 miles of us at around 9:45 PM on Friday night. With wind gusts approaching 100MPH. Is this correct?

if AB were here, wouldn't he say 'time to fire up the generator and load up on some red & whites'??

Doh! I can't help it   

poster didn't say ratner but I think it may have said gene.  any other houses on the brink?